Colorado COVID-19 Forecast

MODERATELY PACED UNLOCK – deaths & economic cost 2^nd line	SLOW UNLOCK (vaccine starting Dec. 1, 2020)
SLOW UNLOCK (vaccine starting April 1, 2021)	ECONOMIC RECOVERY POTENTIAL POPULATION SEASONALITY TRAVEL ADVISORY (MODERATE RECOVERY)

SUMMARY

· Colorado is likely stable.

· The difference in fatalities between waiting and unlocking is small. Colorado is being too conservative and not unlocking enough.

· We chose an unlock profile that preserves relatively low risk to travelers in the summer, and next winter, so the economic recovery is probably under-stated in our model. The price is paid in the fall. If cases are kept down there too, then they just slide into winter and beyond.

· Mortality is extremely low and trending down.

· There is high risk of rebound. Because of seasonality, it is easy to keep cases down in the summer. Colorado experiences a major rebound in winter even in the early vaccine with a waiting scenario. If the vaccine is late, 80% of Coloradans get COVID.

· Travel risk is in autumn if they follow our recommendation. Otherwise in winter.

· Recommendation: MODERATE RECOVERY, with a partial re-lock in the fall so that weather-related cases do not happen all at once and induce overshoot.

INSTRUCTIONS FOR USING THIS WEB PAGE AS A TEMPLATE:

· Download the template files using link on the main page. Unzip all the files and folders to a convenient place on your computer.

· Edit Colorado.htm using MS Word. Select View as WEB LAYOUT. When done, save as a web page, RegionName.htm. This will also produce a folder with associated files.

· Paste charts from the Excel model file using ctrl-V. They will update automatically as long as you have both files open. A bunch of profiles can be done quickly.

· Paste population, seasonality and travel advisory using Paste button on Home tab, Paste Special, Picture (enhanced metafile).

· Change the country or state name at the top of the page.

· Write a custom summary, hitting the same topics as other summaries. Introduce a new topic if you need to discuss a unique aspect.

· End with a recommendation, and your reasoning.

· Paste the exact Excel model data you used in the space below. Paste Special as HTML.

· If you want to request addition of your profile to our website, use the contact form on the home page to obtain my email address, zip them and send as an email attachment, or follow other instructions I give you.

DETAILED INPUTS FOR THIS REGION: (Paste as HTML from Excel)

State (spell exactly, copy from W-data)↓	5/15/20	6/1/20	7/1/20	9/15/20	2/15/21	100%	unlock increment	Data Select (3=World) see W-data tab	start date displacement	Season-ality	Initial & Unlocked R0	Total / Known case ratio	vaccine effect%→ ↓ doses/mth …….begin ↘	70%	Vents main region	Population main region
Colorado	5%	0%	40%	30%	100%	MODERATE RECOVERY	5.0%	232	0	25%	2.5	15.0	230,349	12/1/2020	3,081	5,758,736